How we can't trust the crime figures: After Plebgate, now watchdog says police statistics are unreliable

Police crime figures cannot be trusted, official watchdogs ruled last night.

Amid widespread evidence of fiddling by police forces, the UK Statistics Authority withdrew its stamp of approval from the data.

It is a massive blow for ministers who have repeatedly trumpeted that crime has fallen by 10 per cent since the Coalition came to power. MPs said the decision could further harm trust in the police, which has already been hit by scandals such as Plebgate.

The UK Statistics Authority has withdrawn its stamp of approval on police crime figures

The statistics authority says the crime figures no longer comply with its code of practice – indicating the data cannot be trusted.

‘There is accumulating evidence that suggests the underlying data on crimes recorded by the police may not be reliable,’ said Sir Andrew Dilnot, the watchdog’s chairman.

He pointed to a warning from the Office for National Statistics that police records appear to ‘overstate the true rate at which crime has been falling’ by failing to take into account hundreds of thousands of offences.

 

Sir Andrew also highlighted evidence, submitted to Westminster’s public administration committee, that massaging figures to hit targets was ‘ingrained in policing culture’. Officers told MPs that high-profile and politically sensitive crimes are often reclassified.

An offence of robbery may be transformed into ‘other theft’ and a burglary may become criminal damage to downplay its significance.

Some offences are recorded as ‘no crime’ because there is no direct evidence. Where a mobile phone owner is unable to prove it was stolen it might be deemed lost.

The Office for National Statistics (graph showing crime levels since 1981, pictured) has already said police records 'appear to overstate the rate at which crime has been falling'

In testimony to the public administration committee, Constable James Patrick, who analyses crime figures for the Met, said even rapes, child sex abuse, robberies and burglary were disappearing in a ‘puff of smoke’.

Forces were accused of downgrading crimes to less serious offences and even erasing them altogether by labelling them as accidents or errors.

MPs were told of a string of controversial techniques used by officers to cut recorded crime, including ‘cuffing, nodding, skewing and stitching’.

Last night Bernard Jenkin, who chairs the Westminster committee, said the inquiry had exposed complacency about crime data at all levels.

Tory MP and chair of the Westminster committee Bernard Jenkin (pictured) said the ruling should be a wake-up call for all chief constables

He said the downgrading of the crime figures, which are at record lows, should be a wake-up call to chief constables all around the country. 

Jack Dromey, Labour’s spokesman on policing, said the damning verdict on the police figures was unprecedented.

‘It exposes [Home Secretary] Theresa May’s claim on crime reductions as baseless and out of touch,’ he added.

‘When challenged on hollowing out the police service, with 10,000 frontline police officers axed, Theresa May and ministers have repeatedly hidden behind the 10 per cent fall in police recorded crime.’ 

Keith Vaz, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons home affairs select committee, said: ‘This is an extraordinary step which fuels the concern around the reliability of crime statistics.

‘The recent allegations of manipulation of crime figures go right to the heart of the public trust in the police and how crime figures are compiled.’ 

Earlier this month, Met Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe said there was truth to the allegation from Mr Patrick that statistics were being massaged.

Tom Winsor, Chief Inspector of Constabulary for England and Wales, who is leading an inquiry into crime statistics, has said he expects to find ‘some fiddling’.

Ex-Met commissioner Lord Stevens has said ‘fiddling of figures’ had been going on since he joined the police. He told the home affairs committee it was the ‘biggest scandal coming our way’.

Last night, Norman Baker, Liberal Democrat crime prevention minister, said: ‘It is vital that recorded crime statistics are as robust as they can possibly be – and this Government has a strong record on reinforcing their independence and accountability.

‘One of the first things we did when we came into office was to transfer responsibility for crime statistics to the independent Office for National Statistics.

‘Recorded crime has fallen by more than 10 per cent since June 2010 – and it is important to note that the separate and wholly independent crime survey for England and Wales has also fallen by more than 10 per cent over the same period.

‘It now stands at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981. So the evidence is clear: police reform is working and crime is falling.’ 

Responsibility for the production and publication of crime statistics for England and Wales was transferred from the Home Office to the ONS in April 2012.

But the Home Office remains operationally responsible for the collection and validation of crime figures from police forces in England and Wales, before they are passed on to the ONS for publication.

Police forces are responsible for generating recorded crime data, and each force has a crime registrar responsible for overseeing compliance with standards for recording crimes.

The next crime statistics are due to be published next week.
Glen Watson, who is the director general of the ONS, said: ‘We have already highlighted our concerns about the quality of crime recording by the police, and the variations in trends between recorded crime and our own crime survey for England and Wales. 

‘I am pleased this has been recognised by the authority.’ 

The separate British Crime Survey – a survey of around 30,000 households – continues to have trusted status, officials said.